Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Hypothetical Trade: Watson, Collison, 2008 #32 Overall Pick

New Sonics ownership is in rebuilding mode and is looking to dump unnecessary salary. With a core of Durant and Green they should be willing to shed the salaries of duplicate talent on multiple year contracts. They have a total of six picks this year (2 in the 1st round, 4 in the 2nd) so they will need to make room on the roster for new talent to be signed. I could see them accepting this trade especially if they land a top 2 pick and select Derrick Rose.

Golden State Warriors

Incoming Players:

Earl Watson
Salary: $6,200,000 Years Remaining: 2
PTS: 10.7 REB: 2.9 AST: 6.8 PER: 14.56

Nick Collison
Salary: $6,250,000 Years Remaining: 3
PTS: 9.8 REB: 9.4 AST: 1.4 PER: 15.03

2008 #32 Overall Pick

Outgoing Players: Al Harrington, Kosta Perovic

Seattle Super Sonics

Incoming Players:

Al Harrington
Salary: $8,425,625 Years Remaining: 2
PTS: 13.6 REB: 5.4 AST: 1.6 PER: 15.70

Kosta Perovic
Salary: $1,800,000 Years Remaining: 1
PTS: 1.4 REB: 1.9 AST: 0.1 PER: 10.36

Outgoing Players: Earl Watson, Nick Collison, 2008 #32 Overall Pick

Sonics get arguably the best player in the deal while shedding $32,050,000 and taking back only $21,053,125, a total savings of $10,996,875 over the life of the deals. Ownership will love that and from a GM's standpoint, the early cap flexibility gained without losing key players is tremendous.

If they get a top 2 pick, they select Derrick Rose at #2, possibly Jason Thompson at #24, and best available SG's or PF's with the remaining three 2nd round picks. There roster looks like this:

Super Sonics Lineup 2008/2009

PG: Rose/Ridnour/2nd Rounder
SG: Durant/Wilkins/2nd Rounder
SF: Green/Gelabale/2nd Rounder
PF: Wilcox/Harrington/Thompson
C: Swift/Petro/Sene/Perovic

Warriors get 4 positives out of this deal.

1. Turn Harrington into two useful players - we need bodies and we get them in two areas of need

2. Add a very good backup PG in Watson - a near perfect choice for Baron's backup; he attacks and finishes well; can continue to push the tempo when Baron rests; will make Monta's transition into PG easier when Baron is gone; active on the defensive end; he put up very respectable numbers this year: .453% fg, .371% 3pt, .766 ft%, .516 TS%, 6.8 apg, 10.7 ppg

Earl Watson : 2007-2008 Game Log

From ESPN:

2007 Scouting report:
Watson is an athletic point guard who can get to the rim, but he's a little out of control and tends to make bad decisions. He reined those mistakes in a bit last season, but he got a little too 3-point happy -- many of those misses were contested -- and his finishing skills at the rim also could use some work.

His lack of refinement doesn't extend to the defensive end, where he's been one of the best point guards in the game over the past few years, but it appeared he might have lost a step last season. For starters, his impact on the scoreboard wasn't as profound as it's been in past seasons. The Sonics actually gave up one more point per 48 minutes when he was on the court; the past few seasons had seen dramatic defensive advantages for Watson's club when he plays.

Watson did rank fifth among point guards in steals per minute and 13th in blocks per minute, and he did it with a low rate of fouls. However, opponents ripped him for an 18.0 player efficiency rating when he played, so perhaps he was gambling too much.

3. Add a tough rebounder, defender, and hustler off the bench in Collison - .502 fg%, .737 ft%, .8 bpg, 9.4 rpg, 9.8 ppg, .933 A/T, .537 TS%; finally we have another rebounder besides Beidrins; at 27 years old, he has steadily improved each year.

Nick Collison : 2007-2008 Game Log

From ESPN:

2007 Scouting report: Seattle called Collison's number in the post last season more often than in the past, but I'm not sure this was a great idea. He liked to use a right hook from the left block but he was methodical and didn't seem to have much in his arsenal besides the hook.

Collison's real skill is rebounding. He's active and a quick leaper, and he gets a lot of his points on second-shot opportunities. He'd get even more if he was a better finisher but, despite a good left hand around the rim, he's only average in this respect. While his overall assist ratio wasn't great, he is good at making the pass after he catches it on a screen-and-roll -- with the thought process being that this is a much better idea than having him launch from 17.

Defensively, Collison does a decent job at power forward but was overmatched a bit physically at center. Though a good rebounder, he's not a widebody, and his activity on the boards doesn't translate into shot blocking. On a positive note, Collison spent his first two seasons in constant foul trouble but cut his rate substantially last season.

4. Add an early 2nd round pick in a deep draft - the chances of landing a very good player this late in the draft are still good considering the depth of talent coming out this year; some names that could be available: J.J. Hickson, R. Hendrix, T. Smith, A. Ajinca, D.J. White, Nikola Pekovic, Serge Ibaka, Jason Thompson, Billy Walker, Robin Lopez, Ryan Anderson

Warriors could select versatile winger Nicolas Batum or Donte Greene at #14, freshman J.J. Hickson at #32, and athletic C DeVon Hardin at #44. Resign Matt Barnes to a low contract. Sign 3-point shooting PF Walter Herrmann.

Warriors Lineup 2008/2009

PG: Davis/E. Watson
SG: Ellis/Azubuike/Belinelli
SF: Jackson/Barnes/Batum
PF: Wright/Herrmann/Hickson
C: Biedrins/Collison/Hardin

Nelson has a legit backup PG he can trust in Earl Watson and Ellis can act as the 3rd PG. Our SG's and SF's are all able to play multiple positions. We get bigger and bulkier in the middle. Wright steps into the starting lineup or can be eased in with Collison starting initially. If we can sign Herrmann for $2.5m or less, we will fall under the Luxury Tax. Sign the best big-man coach money can buy.

Although we get significantly younger with three draft picks, we get veteran help in areas of need and are able to clear space for Wright to take on a bigger role. Our future looks bright with a young core of Ellis, Bierdrins, Wright, Belinelli, Batum, Hickson, and Hardin.

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