Monday, July 28, 2008

DID MULLIN OVERPAY AGAIN?


Productivity is an elusive stat to pin down, but John Hollinger's 'Player Efficiency Rating' or 'PER' is as good as any in quickly evaluating NBA talent that has played a good sample of minutes. The following is an excerpt from Hoopsworld in which they point out that the Warriors are setting the bar high for player salaries if one was to convert PER to a dollar amount.


From Hoopsworld:

With the Warriors being the only buyers in restricted free agency so far, its relevant to revisit the valuations the Warriors have established in the marketplace. Again we'll use ESPN's end of season PER numbers to base the values. With Monta Ellis getting $67 million on a new six-year deal his 19.01 PER breaks down to $3.52 million per PER point on a six-year deal, Andris Biedrins' new six-year, $54 million deal put him and his 19.18 PER rating at $2.82 million per PER point. The Lakers inked Sasha Vujacic and his 15.06 PER to a three-year, $15 million deal, making his six-year value $1.99 million per PER point. CJ Miles got his four-year, $15 million offer sheet matched by Utah, making his 14.30 PER rating worth $1.57 million per PER point in a six-year deal. Based on the average of the restricted deals done, a restricted players PER point on a six-year deal is worth, $2.59 million. Here is where the remaining restricted free agents should fall:

Player PER Six-Year Deal Per Year
Carl Landry 21.56 $73.3 million $12.2 million**
Josh Smith 19.08 $64.9 million $10.8 million
Andre Iguodala 19.05 $64.8 million $10.8 million
J.R. Smith 18.15 $61.7 million $10.3 million
Emeka Okafor 17.46 $59.4 million $9.9 million
Luol Deng 17.07 $58.0 million $9.7 million
Louis Williams 16.71 $56.8 million $9.5 million
Ben Gordon 16.52 $56.2 million $9.4 million
Dorrell Wright 14.42 $49.0 million $8.2 million
Delonte West 12.13 $41.2 million $6.9 million
Nenad Krstic 8.53 $29.0 million $4.8 million
** Carl Landry's PER is amazing, but won't get anywhere close to $12.2 per year


Part of the justification for paying 1.5 times higher per PER point to Biedrins and Ellis is the perceived upside of both players. Both are young and are considered franchise building blocks in important skill positions. Although Monta has not proven that he can yet master the PG position, he has proven to be a unique talent by being able to use his combination of quickness, explosiveness, and mid-range shooting to score at will on opponents on a nightly basis.

Here are rough valuations of some of the top NBA players not on their rookie contracts. The salary per PER point is based on what they made in 2008, multiplied by 6 years, and divided by their PER.

Player - PER - $ per point of PER based on 2008 salary applied over 6 years

LeBron James: 29.23 PER = $2.68M
Amare Stoudemire: 27.61 PER = $2.99M
Kevin Garnett: 25.30 PER = $5.63M
Dirk Nowitzki: 24.66 PER = $3.98M
Tim Duncan: 24.41 PER = $4.67M
Manu Ginobili: 24.34 PER = $2.24M
Kobe Bryant: 24.31 PER = $4.81M
Chris Bosh: 23.88 PER = $3.28M
Yao Ming: 22.61 PER = $3.65M
Chauncey Billups: 23.61 PER = $2.54M
Carlos Boozer: 21.96 PER = $3.17M
Pau Gasol: 21.68 PER = $3.80M
Steve Nash: 21.16 PER = $3.23M
Carmelo Anthony: 21.16 PER = $3.70M
Dwayne Wade: 21.63 PER = $3.62M


Current Warriors based on 2008 salary:

Stephen Jackson: 14.94 PER = $2.66M
Al Harrington: 15.70 PER = $3.22M
Corey Maggette: 19.43 PER = $2.16M

Based on this information and comparative data, do you think Monta Ellis ($3.52M per PER point) and Andris Biedrins ($2.82M per PER point) are overpaid?

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

depends if you give a shit about per.

how about dollar to fg% pt?

per is a good stat for player comparison not salary evaluation

Mullin's Mind said...

PER takes fg% and pts into account, as well as several important aspects of the game. Here is a link to the complete formula:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html

I agree that it's not perfect (weak on defensive productivity), but if the players are logging in a lot of minutes, the most productive players tend to yield the highest PER's.

gswfan4ever said...

interesting. and if you take into account that the PERs of AB and Monta are most likely going to improve the following seasons, it gets even better