Thursday, May 22, 2008

SEARCHING FOR THE ELUSIVE BIG

It's been harped on for years that the Golden State Warriors lack the prototypical difference-making big man that could do all the dirty work down low while still posing as a legitimate scoring threat. Wright and Beidrins are stars in the making, but we need the Boozer/Duncan/Stoudemire/Aldridge type of player to balance out the roster and have more options to provide a change-of-pace in the starting lineup or coming off the bench. We don't have the bulk in the middle. We need another rebounder and shot blocker. Basically, we need a big that can help the team right itself when Nellieball is not working.

The following is an exercise to aid in finding out who may be the best all-around Big for the Warriors. I've compared 11 players that have a chance to be available at #14 based on mock drafts I've seen. The players have been evaluated in the following categorize: Scoring, Rebounding, Blocks, Assists, Steals, Turnovers, True Shooting Percentage, Three Pointers Made, and Age. The top player in each category sets the benchmark for a 10 and the others get scores depending on how far they are from the best (5 will be the lowest possible score one can get). I also weighted the results with categories vital to the type of player we need having greater impact on the overall score while lessening the impact of categories not as important to the PF/C role.

I know it's not even close to a perfect predictor for success but here it goes anyway.....

These statistics are based on Per 40 Pace Adjusted.
Rank - Player - Statistic - Score

Points
01. Kevin Love - 29.6 - 10
02. Marreese Speights - 23.7 - 9
03. Jason Thompson - 22.6 - 8
04. Richard Hendrix - 22.3 - 8
05. Kosta Koufos - 21.9 - 7
06. Roy Hibbert - 21.7 - 7
07. J.J. Hickson - 20.9 - 7
08. Darrell Arthur - 20.1 - 7
09. JaVale McGee - 20.0 - 7
10 . Robin Lopez - 17.2 - 6
11. DeAndre Jordan - 16.2 - 6

Rebounds (1.25 multiplier)
01. Kevin Love - 14.8 - 10
02. Jason Thompson - 13.4 - 9
03. Marreese Speights - 13.2 - 9
04. Richard Hendrix - 12.7 - 8
05. DeAndre Jordan - 12.3 - 8
06. J.J. Hickson - 11.9 - 8
07. JaVale McGee - 10.4 - 7
08. Roy Hibbert - 10.3 - 7
09. Kosta Koufos - 10.1 - 7
10. Darrell Arthur - 9.9 - 7
11. Robin Lopez - 9.6 - 6

Blocks (1.25 multiplier)
01. JaVale McGee - 4.0 - 10
02. Robin Lopez - 3.9 - 10
03. Roy Hibbert - 3.6 - 9
04. Jason Thompson - 3.0 - 9
05. Kosta Koufos - 2.8 - 9
06. DeAndre Jordan - 2.6 - 8
07. Richard Hendrix - 2.5 - 8
08. Marreese Speights - 2.2 - 8
09. Darrell Arthur - 2.1 - 7
09. J.J. Hickson - 2.1 - 7
11. Kevin Love - 2.0 - 7

True Shooting Percentage
01. Kevin Love - 65% - 10
02. Marreese Speights - 64% - 10
03. Roy Hibbert - 63% - 10
04. J.J. Hickson - 62% - 9
05. Richard Hendrix - 59% - 8
06. DeAndre Jordan - 58% - 8
06. Jason Thompson - 58% - 8
08. Darrell Arthur - 57% - 8
08. Robin Lopez - 57% - 8
10. JaVale McGee - 55% - 7
10. Kosta Koufos - 55% - 7

Assists (.75 multiplier)
01. Jason Thompson - 3.0 - 10
01. Roy Hibbert - 3.0 - 10
03. Kevin Love - 2.7 - 9
04. Richard Hendrix - 2.0 - 8
05. Marreese Speights - 1.5 - 7
06. J.J. Hickson - 1.4 - 7
07. Darrell Arthur - 1.3 - 7
08. Robin Lopez - 1.0 - 7
09. DeAndre Jordan - 0.9 - 6
09. JaVale McGee - 0.9 - 6
11. Kosta Koufos - 0.8 - 6

Three Pointers Made (.75 multiplier)
01. Kevin Love - 29 (35.4%) - 10
02. Kosta Koufos - 22 (34.9%) - 10
03. JaVale McGee - 14 (33.3%) - 8
04. Jason Thompson - 11 (32.4%) - 8
05. Roy Hibbert - 3 (100%) - 7
06. Richard Hendrix - 2 (28.6%) - 6
07. Darrell Arthur - 2 (16.7%) - 6
08. Robin Lopez - 1 (100%) - 6
09. J.J. Hickson - 0 (00.0%) - 5
09. Marreese Speights - 0 (00.0%) - 5
09. DeAndre Jordan - 0 (00.0%) - 5

Steals
1. Richard Hendrix - 1.6 - 10
2. Jason Thompson - 1.2 - 8
3. JaVale McGee - 1.1 - 8
4. Kevin Love - 1.0 - 8
4. J.J. Hickson - 1.0 - 8
6. Roy Hibbert - 0.9 - 7
7. Darrell Arthur - 0.8 - 7
7. Robin Lopez - 0.8 - 7
9. Marreese Speights - 0.7 - 7
9. Kosta Koufos - 0.7 - 7
11. DeAndre Jordan - 0.4 - 6

Turnovers
01. Richard Hendrix - 2.2 - 10
02. Kosta Koufos - 2.3 - 10
03. Roy Hibbert - 2.7 - 9
04. Marreese Speights - 2.8 - 9
04. Kevin Love - 2.8 - 9
06. Darrell Arthur - 3.0 - 8
06. Robin Lopez - 3.0 - 8
08. Jason Thompson - 3.2 - 8
09. DeAndre Jordan - 3.3 - 8
10. JaVale McGee - 3.4 - 8
11. J.J. Hickson - 3.8 - 7

Age (1.25 multiplier)
1. Kosta Koufos - 02/24/89 - 10
2. Kevin Love - 09/07/88 - 9
3. J.J. Hickson - 09/04/88 - 9
4. DeAndre Jordan - 07/21/88 - 9
5. Robin Lopez - 04/01/88 - 8
6. Darrell Arthur - 03/25/88 - 8
7. JaVale McGee - 01/19/88 - 8
8. Marreese Speights - 08/04/87 - 8
9. Roy Hibbert - 12/11/86 - 6
10. Richard Hendrix - 11/15/86 - 6
11. Jason Thompson - 07/21/86 - 6

Overall Scores:
01. Love - 79.25
02. Thompson - 71.5
03. Speights - 70.75
04. Koufos - 70.5
05. Hendrix - 69.75
06. McGee - 69.25
07. Hibbert - 68.75
08. Hickson - 66.5
09. Lopez - 64.75
10. Jordan - 63.5
11. Arthur - 63.25

Love leads the pack by a large margin. Senior Jason Thompson overcame the low Age score to place 2nd while rawer talents like Jordan and McGee didn't fair as well. I was surprised to see Arthur, a consensus lottery pick, finish dead last on the list. But if you look at how he finishes in each of the categories studied, he never ranks in the top level. What intrigues GM's is his potential, athleticism, and intangibles - things that were not measured in this exercise.

When the combine results come in, I'll add an Athleticism and Size component to the equation. Other factors that should be considered are Strength of Schedule, Potential (similar to age but takes more into account), Leadership, Work Ethic, Intangibles, and Special Circumstances (injuries, system, coach, rotation) but the more you add the more subjective it can get. So take this exercise with a grain of salt and deal with the data as you see fit. This is just a small part of the evaluation process, but at least now, I have a better idea of how Big Men of this draft stack up against each other.

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