Tuesday, August 12, 2008

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SCHEDULE



Here are my guesses as to how the Warriors season will turn out. The first predicted outcome is a pessimistic guess and the second is optimistic. The Average W-L total alternates between rounding up and rounding down as each month is calculated.

Link to PDF of 2008-2009 Schedule

October
Wed 29 vs New Orleans 7:30pm L-L
Fri 31 @ Toronto 4:00pm L-L

November
Sat 01 @ New Jersey 4:30pm L-W
Mon 03 @ Memphis 5:00pm W-W
Wed 05 vs Denver 7:30pm L-W
Fri 07 vs Memphis 7:30pm W-W
Sun 09 @ Sacramento 6:00pm L-W
Tue 11 vs Minnesota 7:30pm W-W
Thu 13 vs Detroit 7:30pm L-L
Sat 15 @ LA Clippers 12:30pm L-W
Tue 18 vs Portland 7:30pm L-W
Fri 21 vs Chicago 7:30pm L-W
Sun 23 @ Philadelphia 2:00pm L-L
Tue 25 @ Washington 4:00pm L-L
Wed 26 @ Boston 4:30pm L-L
Fri 28 @ Cleveland 4:30pm L-L
Sat 29 @ New York 4:30pm W-W

Pessimistic: 4-13
Optimistic: 10-7
Average: 7-10

December
Mon 01 vs Miami 7:30pm L-W
Fri 05 @ Houston 5:30pm L-L
Sat 06 @ San Antonio 5:30pm L-L
Mon 08 @ Oklahoma City 5:00pm W-W
Wed 10 vs Milwaukee 7:30pm W-W
Fri 12 vs Houston 7:30pm L-L
Sat 13 @ Denver 6:00pm L-W
Mon 15 vs Orlando 7:30pm L-W
Wed 17 @ Indiana 4:00pm W-W
Fri 19 @ Atlanta 4:30pm L-W
Sat 20 @ Charlotte 4:00pm W-W
Mon 22 @ Orlando 4:00pm L-L
Tue 23 @ Miami 4:30pm L-L
Fri 26 vs Boston 7:30pm L-L
Sun 28 @ LA Lakers 6:30pm L-L
Mon 29 vs Toronto 7:30pm L-W
Wed 31 @ Oklahoma City 5:00pm W-W

Pessimistic: 5-12
Optimistic: 10-7
Average: 8-9

January
Fri 02 @ Minnesota 5:00pm W-W
Mon 05 @ Utah 6:00pm L-L
Wed 07 vs LA Lakers 7:30pm L-W
Sat 10 @ Portland 7:00pm L-W
Sun 11 vs Indiana 6:00pm W-W
Wed 14 vs Sacramento 7:30pm W-W
Fri 16 vs Atlanta 7:30pm W-W
Mon 19 vs Washington 1:00pm L-W
Wed 21 vs Oklahoma City 7:30pm W-W
Fri 23 vs Cleveland 7:30pm L-W
Sun 25 vs LA Clippers 6:00pm W-W
Wed 28 @ Dallas 6:00pm L-W
Fri 30 @ New Orleans 6:30pm L-L
Sat 31 @ Houston 5:30pm L-L

Pessimistic: 6-8
Optimistic: 11-3
Average: 9-5

February
Mon 02 vs San Antonio 7:30pm L-L
Wed 04 vs Phoenix 7:30pm L-W
Fri 06 @ Phoenix 7:30pm L-W
Sun 08 vs Utah 6:00pm L-W
Tue 10 vs New York 7:30pm W-W
Thu 12 vs Portland 7:30pm L-W
Wed 18 vs LA Lakers 7:30pm L-W
Sat 21 vs Oklahoma City 7:30pm W-W
Mon 23 @ LA Clippers 7:30pm L-W
Fri 27 vs Charlotte 7:30pm W-W

Pessimistic: 3-7
Optimistic: 9-1
Average: 6-4

March
Sun 01 vs Utah 6:00pm L-L
Tue 03 @ Minnesota 5:00pm W-W
Wed 04 @ Chicago 5:30pm L-W
Fri 06 @ Detroit 5:00pm L-L
Sat 07 @ Milwaukee 5:30pm W-W
Wed 11 vs New Jersey 7:30pm W-W
Fri 13 vs Dallas 7:30pm L-W
Sun 15 vs Phoenix 6:00pm L-W
Tue 17 vs LA Clippers 7:30pm W-W
Thu 19 @ LA Lakers 7:30pm L-L
Fri 20 vs Philadelphia 7:30pm W-W
Sun 22 @ New Orleans 4:00pm L-L
Tue 24 @ San Antonio 5:30pm L-L
Wed 25 @ Dallas 5:30pm L-W
Sat 28 @ Denver 6:00pm L-W
Mon 30 vs Memphis 7:30pm W-W

Pessimistic: 6-10
Optimistic: 11-5
Average: 9-8

April
Wed 01 vs Sacramento 7:30pm W-W
Fri 03 vs New Orleans 7:30pm L-W
Sun 05 @ Sacramento 6:00pm W-W
Wed 08 vs Minnesota 7:30pm W-W
Fri 10 vs Houston 7:30pm L-L
Sat 11 @ Utah 6:00pm L-L
Mon 13 vs San Antonio 7:30pm L-W
Wed 15 @ Phoenix 7:30pm L-W

Pessimistic: 3-5
Optimistic: 6-2
Average: 4-4

Season Record
Pessimistic: 27-55
Optimistic: 57-25
Average: 42-40

42 wins might not be good enough to make the playoffs in the stacked West, but if you are optimistic that the Warriors and Don Nelson can surprise teams as an underdog, you're feeling pretty good about their chances. A lot of things have to go in the Warriors' favor for them to stay in the race. Maggette, Jackson, Harrington, and Turiaf need to stay healthy and give consistent production. But most importantly, success of the season will rest with the growth and increased contributions of the youngsters. If Monta can adequately man the point, Williams can be more than just a back-up PG, Biedrins improves his game, and we see good rotation minutes from Wright, Belinelli, Azubuike, and Randolph - it could be a good year.

I'm not optimistic that they will reach 42 wins and a playoff berth, but if the young core gets plenty of playing time and development along the way to a respectable season, I will be satisfied. Ideally, I would like to see a true commitment to the youngsters and a shift to stealth tank-mode if things don't look good by mid-January. Trade the vets and play Randolph, Hendrix, Morrow, and the other young guys heavy minutes to hone their skills and work towards a legitimate good shot at landing Ricky Rubio, DeMar Derozan, Blake Griffin, or James Hardin in the upcoming draft. Even if they don't end up getting one of those guys, the higher draft pick can be packaged with one or two of the vets to bring in a very good player with upside. We need superstars on this team. Hopefully, one of our guys will turn into one, but realistically, the best way to acquire a superstar is by landing a very high draft pick. If Mullin realizes this and has the backing of ownership, there is great hope for the future of the Golden State Warriors.

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