Saturday, July 26, 2008


Statistics from 2007-2008 Season

Points per 48 minutes:
Maggette - 29.7
Ellis - 25.5
Jackson - 24.6
Harrington - 24.2
Wright - 19.3
Azubuike - 19.1
Belinelli - 18.8
Biedrins - 18.4
Williams - 17.6
Turiaf - 17.0
Watson - 15.5
Perovic - 12.6

Warriors should have no problems scoring with the addition of Maggette and the continued growth of Ellis. Azubuike and Belinelli should be able to contribute more as well and we could get surprise contributions from Randolph, Wright, and Morrow as well.

Field Goal Percentage:
Biedrins - 62.0
Wright - 55.4
Ellis - 53.1
Turiaf - 47.4
Maggette - 45.8
Harrington - 43.4
Watson - 42.6
Jackson - 40.5
Belinelli - 38.7
Williams - 37.9
Perovic - 30.0

Warriors are fortunate to have Biedrins who had the highest field goal percentage last season. Turiaf adds to the accuracy, expect to see more Wright, and a heavier dose of Ellis. Davis (42.6) brought down the team field goal percentage with his high volume chucking, so look for an overall improvement next season. Depending on how much time the rookies get, Randolph could bring the average down, but Morrow may be able to make up for the slump with his deadeye shooting.

Free Throw Percentage:
Morrow - 85.9
Jackson - 83.2
Maggette - 81.2
Randolph - 80.6 (Summer League Stats: 54 ftm - 67 fta)
Watson - 79.3
Williams - 78.7
Belinelli - 77.8
Harrington - 77.4
Ellis - 76.7
Wright - 67.5
Perovic - 66.7
Biedrins - 62.0

Maggette earns his money going to the line and converting his free throws at a high rate. He's one of the best in the business and with the help of free throw coach Sidney Moncrief, the Warriors should continue to improve. Hopefully, the Warriors will see some of Randolph who wasn't a strong free throw shooter until he focused on working on it after his freshman year. A duo of Maggette and Randolph could put a team in foul trouble in a hurry. The signing of Anthony Morrow is nearly automatic and will also bolster the Warriors free throw numbers if he is able to get playing time this year.

Three Point Shooting Percentage:
Belinelli - 39.0
Maggette - 38.4
Williams - 38.0
Harrington - 37.5
Azubuike - 36.4
Jackson - 36.3
Watson - 34.6
Ellis - 23.1
Biedrins - 0
Turiaf - 0
Wright - 0
Perovic - 0

Mullin added two very good 3-point shooters in Maggette and Marcus Williams. Belinelli should get more PT and the average isn't brought down by Baron (33.0), so expect an improvement in this department. If Morrow is able to contribute, look out.

Rebounds per 48 minutes:
Biedrins - 17.2
Perovic - 16.4
Wright - 12.6
Turiaf - 10.1
Harrington - 9.7
Azubuike - 9.0
Maggette - 7.6
Ellis - 6.3
Williams - 5.7
Jackson - 5.3
Watson - 4.2
Belinelli - 2.8

Warriors got bigger this offseason and should make a slightly better showing than last year and climb back into the realm of respectability. Turiaf, Hendrix, and Randolph with more Wright should do the trick. We lost a couple of rebounding guards in Barnes and Pietrus, but Maggette and Azubuike aren't bad at all. Even with the additions, the Warriors need to add another proven rebounder to compete with teams who routinely dominate the them on the glass.

Asssits per 48 minutes:
Williams - 7.9
Jackson - 5.0
Ellis - 4.9
Watson - 4.5
Turiaf - 4.2
Maggette - 3.6
Belinelli - 3.0
Harrington - 2.9
Azubuike - 2.1
Biedrins - 1.7
Perovic - 1.3
Wright - 1.1

Obviously, Baron's assists (9.4) will be missed and there's going to be a sure drop-off in this department. Unless Williams surprises everyone with an unbelievable season and Monta makes a successful transition to PG this could be a problem area for the Warriors. Williams was considered the top PG in the 2006 draft and has looked the part at times in New Jersey, so I am very optimistic that he rack up better numbers as a Warrior.

Steals per 48 minutes:
Watson - 1.97
Ellis - 1.94
Harrington - 1.63
Jackson - 1.55
Williams - 1.4
Maggette - 1.36
Biedrins - 1.29
Azubuike - 1.24
Belinelli - .99
Turiaf - .92
Wright - .77
Perovic - 0

The loss of Baron Davis (2.87) will really hurt the Warriors' ability to wreak havoc on the defensive end because they don't have that steals leader on the team anymore. Also out is Mickael Pietrus (2.41) who was the team's 2nd best steals guy. Players that might be attainable to shore up this weak area: R. Artest (2.94), S. Marion (2.59), C. Hayes (2.59), M. Daniels (2.46), B. Wells (2.30), C.J. Miles (2.23), Joakim Noah (2.13), J.R. Smith (2.09), Thabo Sefolosha (2.04), Ruben Patterson (3.11), Trevor Ariza (2.88), Kyle Lowry (2.11), Julian Wright (2.18), Renaldo Balkman (2.23), Robert Swift (2.42)

Blocks per 48 minutes:
Turiaf - 3.55
Wright - 2.81
Perovic - 2.53
Biedrins - 2.17
Azubuike - .94
Jackson - .49
Ellis - .42
Harrington - .35
Williams - .17
Maggette - .13
Watson - 0
Belinelli - 0

Warriors lost their most effective shot blocker in Patrick O'Bryant (4.15) for nothing but gain Turiaf's toughness and energy. Wright should help, as well as the rookies, Randolph and Hendrix. Warriors could use a proven shot blocker at the SF/PF position to improve their defense even more.

Turnovers per 48 minutes:
Perovic - 1.3
Azubuike - 1.6
Wright - 1.7
Biedrins - 2.0
Harrington - 2.0
Watson - 2.4
Belinelli - 2.4
Turiaf - 2.4
Ellis - 2.7
Jackson - 3.3
Maggette - 3.7
Williams - 4.2

This is another area the Warriors could struggle in. Although Baron (3.5) was the most turnover prone guy on the roster last season, he was the best ball handler and decision maker. The new additions of Maggette and Williams project to hurt the Warriors even more. Coupled with the fact that Monta will be the primary PG, things could get a little ugly.

Player Efficiency Rating:
Maggette - 19.4
Biedrins - 19.2
Ellis - 18.9
Wright - 17.3
Jackson - 17.2
Turiaf - 15.1
Harrington - 13.7
Azubuike - 13.4
Watson - 11.1
Williams - 11.1
Perovic - 10.36
Belinelli - 8.2

Baron (19.87) was the leading PER guy last season, but he is being replaced with another highly efficient player in Maggette. I expect an overall decline in productivity because Baron was able to make his teammates better and it still remains to be seen how the current decision makers handle play-making duties. All but one (Harrington) of the project starting five have very good PER's, but none are currently considered among the elite level of the NBA. Ellis and Biedrins show a lot of promise and if Wright can take over the starting PF position while maintaining his productivity, the Warriors will be in great shape.

True Shooting Percentage:
Biedrins - 63.7
Maggette - 59.5
Wright - 58.3
Ellis - 58.0
Harrington - 54.7
Turiaf - 53.9
Jackson - 53.6
Watson - 51.9
Williams - 49.9
Belinelli - 49.0
Perovic - 39.6

With Maggette in and Davis (52.3) out, the Warriors should be a better shooting team overall. Biedrins was dominant in this category and look for Wright and to a lesser extent, Morrow, to help here too. Randolph and Belinelli have shown that they need to work on taking better shots, but Randolph's ability to live at the free throw line could help a little.


Strong areas for the Warriors should be in scoring and shooting accuracy (2's, 3's, and free throws). The additions of Maggette and Turiaf, along with the continued improvement of the youngsters should insure success on the offensive end.

Weak areas include all aspects of defense, especially steals. Assists and turnovers will be areas of concern with the departure of Davis and the Warriors could stand to improve on the glass as well. Mullin should strive to tweak the roster by trading for an upgrade at PF (Josh Smith, Shawn Marion, Ron Artest, Amir Johnson, Emeka Okafor, Lamar Odom, Andray Blatche) or by adding an outstanding backcourt player that can handle the ball, create for others, and get some steals (Kyle Lowry, Leandro Barbosa, Mario Chalmers, Jordan Farmar, Louis Williams, Sergio Rodriguez). Marcus Williams may be able to fill this role, but that remains to be seen. A solid SF that can rebound and defend could also be a target (Ryan Gomes, Dorell Wright, Jared Dudley).


gswfan4ever said...

nice analysis. one minor disagreement in regard of the steals. Even without Baron, I think it wouldn't be that big of a drop off, if any. Here are the reasons:

1) Deeper rotation. Especially if Nellie keeps his words and play the young guys more, the team is deeper than before. What does it mean? It means guys will be less fatigue and hustle more on the defensive end of the floor.

2) more FT shooting from us, means more getting back on defense as well as more rested from the FT stoppages.

Though unlikely, I'd also hope CJ gets some run here and there as well. The guy lead the summer league by far with more than 4 steals per game

Also, Turiaf is a very good shotblocker. I feel a lot more comfortable with a Biedrins/Turiaf combo than Biedrins/Harrington. And if Wright and Randolph get some minutes, we should be able to protect the rim a lot better than last season.

So anyway, if FG%, FT%, rebounding all improve from last season, and defense about the same(might be even better, cuz even though Baron got his steals, he was constantly letting the Roger Masons and Anthony Johnsons dropping 20 pts on him), and only getting 2-3 fewer assists per game and maybe 2-3 more turnovers per game, I'd expect an overall improvement of the team from last season.

Mullin's Mind said...

Thanks for the thoughful comments gswfan4ever. I definately agree with you that the deep rotation (on paper) should result in a more energized defensive effort, but I'm not certain that there is anyone or two players that could make up for the loss of Baron's lightning quick hands, reflexes, and anticipation. Baron got lazy but when he was lock in on a defensive mindset, he was one of the best at his position. Although he didn't get credit for many steals, he would be the one that would cause the initial deflection or panic in the guy he was guarding. Baron got plenty of respect from the refs even though it looked like he hacked his guy. Our current players aren't going to get the same treatment and might have to pull back on their aggressiveness to stay out of foul trouble.

I still think we need a guy that can get at least 2.25 steals/48 min. because Nellieball at its best needs a lighting fast thief to wreak havoc in our scramble style defense. Watson's pretty good, but that player valuable enough to keep on the floor for most of the game.